Why more than 50 Dutch festivals have already been cancelled, and what comes next.

As the city gets ready for ADE 2025, the Dutch festival scene is having a bruising year. More than 50 festivals have been cancelled, mostly mid-tier events up to 10,000 capacity (IQ Magazine, 2025). At the same time, the very biggest shows are exploding in scale, with global stadium attendance up roughly 300% year on year (The Guardian, 2025). 

"The top end is running out of venues while the middle fights over margins. It is a classic winner-takes-all scenario."

This shift has been building for years, but 2025 is the inflexion point. Three structural changes are undermining the old playbook for event marketing.

1. Audiences are ageing

Since the pandemic, the average festival-goer has moved from 26 to 31 years old and the share of over-35s has doubled. Clubs report a similar age creep (Weeztix, 2024, Weeztix, 2025).

Tickets cost over 50% more than in 2012 (beslist.nl, 2019), while younger people have less spending power (Demos, 2024). The result is a growing generation gap. Festivals that fail to bring younger fans through will quietly age out.

From conversations with BASH organisers, more and more are timing pushes around the Dutch student-loan pay day (DUO) to capture under-26 demand.

"Miss the younger generation and the whole scene shuffles toward a cliff together."

2. The end of predictable marketing

The old formula used to be simple: strong line-up plus broad comms equals sell-out. That no longer holds.

• Advertising CPMs have risen sharply, from ~$5 to ~$9 since 2020 (Tinuiti, 2025).

• Effectiveness has fallen due to privacy changes such as Apple’s ATT (Aridor et al, 2025).

• Reach is gate-kept by platforms like TikTok, Instagram and Google.

The practical effect: festivals that once benefited from organic social growth now pay more for less reach. On top of that, resale platforms encourage late buying among price-sensitive fans, which makes sales curves harder to predict.

3. The social factor decides

The biggest blind spot is human, not technical. People rarely buy for a line-up alone. They buy for the social experience: who else is going, and who they will go with.

BASH data indicates that returning attendees bring about 40% more friends than first-timers. Those buyers are the spark.

If you sell 20% of tickets in week one, your odds of selling out rise significantly because those early buyers propagate the event through their networks (Weeztix, 2025).

Yet many organisers mark Early Birds as “sold out” to manufacture FOMO. That can backfire, because the first wave is what powers organic spread.

“The difference between survival and decline lives in week one. Hit 20% there and your organic reach multiplies.”

The survival play: move from broadcasting to community

The festivals that are weathering this moment share one trait: they build communities rather than chase audiences. They create early social commitment using three levers:

1. Direct lines to their community

WhatsApp, email and owned hubs that sit outside algorithmic feeds.

2. Social triggers

Friend links, group offers and targeted youth pricing, especially for 18–22 and 23–26 cohorts.

3. Ads as an amplifier, not a life-support

Spend after the organic spark, with emphasis on retention and repeat behaviour.

Outlook: community wins

"Winners lower distribution costs by building communities and reduce dependence on third parties. People bring people, which makes revenue more predictable.“

Expect this shift to be a live topic at ADE 2025. Those that make it through will not always be the brands with the largest budgets or the biggest acts. They will be the ones who overhaul their marketing and distribution strategy. 

The festivals that fade cling to the broadcast model and hope. The festivals that grow treat marketing as relationship management with their audience and design for social spread from day one.